From Baton Rouge Business Report
Real estate experts are unsure what the end of the First Time Homebuyer tax credit will mean for the housing market at the end of this month, yet so far more than 32,000 Louisianans have collected $224 million through program, according to the New Orleans office of the IRS. Overall, 1.8 million taxpayers have benefited from the expanded program through the stimulus act, according to the Treasury Department.
Purchasers must have a binding contract to buy a home by April 30 and must close on the home in the next two months to qualify for the $8,000 credit for first-time buyers; certain other purchasers can qualify for $6,500 credits.
If Louisiana housing history is any guide, a recovery in the market is due by 2011, but there is a significant hole to climb out of, according to First American CoreLogic. The firm recently said its Loan Performance Home Price Index showed a peak-to-current plunge in national prices of 29% from April 2006 to January.
“The cumulative loss in home prices . . . is more severe than the next worst housing recession of 24% cumulative decline, which began in Louisiana in the mid-1980s,” says Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American CoreLogic, in a statement. “It took Louisiana five years to recover from the bottom; we expect this recovery to take at least as long.”
Yet through March, the average sales price of a home in the greater Baton Rouge area was $192,782, according to Realtor data, while in 2006, the average price was $186,035. Speculation on how much of a “shadow inventory” is out there— foreclosed-on houses that banks have not put on the market yet—is another factor in gauging the hoped-for recovery. That fuzzy figure varies wildly in the media between 1 million and nearly 18 million units.
—Todd R. Brown